Maritimereport

Indian Ocean Primacy: A 2040 Strategic Framework

By Sravan Puttagunta·15 November 2025
India's window to establish maritime primacy in the Indian Ocean is narrowing as China's naval presence expands. This report outlines a 2040 framework for sustained Indian Ocean leadership.

Executive Summary

The Indian Ocean is not merely a geographic space — it is the arterial system of India's economic future. More than 80% of India's oil imports and over 90% of its trade by volume traverse these waters. Yet India's ability to shape outcomes in this domain is being steadily contested.

Strategic Context

China's String of Pearls strategy has placed naval assets at Gwadar, Hambantota, and Djibouti. The PLA Navy's submarine deployments in the Indian Ocean have increased fourfold since 2015. India must respond with commensurate strategic investment.

Policy Recommendations

  1. Expand the Indian Navy's blue-water capability by 40% before 2030
  2. Negotiate exclusive economic zone agreements with Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar
  3. Establish a permanent maritime monitoring presence in the Andaman Sea
  4. Invest in undersea cable infrastructure as a strategic asset